India's air power: Rafale, the AMCA programme, and the squadron gap

The squadron gap

The Indian Air Force’s fighter strength is measured against a long-standing sanctioned figure of 42 squadrons, a level defence commentators describe as the minimum the service treats as necessary for a two-front posture against Pakistan and China. The Observer Research Foundation and other trackers place the actual fielded strength well below that: reporting through 2025 and 2026 puts the IAF at roughly 29–31 fighter squadrons, down from a peak of around 39–41 squadrons in the 1990s (ORF). The decline is attributed to the phased retirement of Soviet-era MiG-21, MiG-27 and MiG-23 types faster than new aircraft have entered operational service, with the last MiG-21 squadrons retired in late 2025 (ORF). Exact squadron counts vary between sources and reporting dates; this brief characterises the range rather than fixing a single number.

The IAF itself is organised into seven commands and operates a total fleet of roughly 1,750 aircraft of all types with about 149,000 active personnel, according to encyclopedic tallies (Wikipedia). The fighter shortfall, not the overall fleet size, is what the modernisation programmes below are meant to address.

Rafale: the in-service fleet and what is on order

India contracted 36 Dassault Rafale multirole fighters from France under an inter-governmental agreement signed in 2016, delivered between 2020 and 2022 and configured with India-specific enhancements including integration of the Meteor beyond-visual-range missile (Wikipedia). These equip two squadrons — No. 17 “Golden Arrows” at Ambala and No. 101 “Falcons” at Hasimara — positioned toward the western and eastern fronts respectively (Defence Security Asia). Rafales were reported among the platforms used in Operation Sindoor, the cross-border strikes India conducted over 7–10 May 2025 (Defence Security Asia).

Two further Rafale tracks are active. For the Indian Navy, a deal for 26 Rafale Marine aircraft — 22 single-seat carrier-capable jets and four twin-seat trainers — was signed on 28 April 2025, with deliveries scheduled by the manufacturer to begin around 2028–2029 (Wikipedia). For the Air Force, the separate 114-aircraft Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) requirement has shifted from a competitive tender toward a government-to-government route: reporting indicates the Defence Acquisition Council granted Acceptance of Necessity in February 2026 and that the Ministry of Defence issued a Letter of Request to France in June 2026 to open negotiations, with a mix of fly-away and India-manufactured aircraft under discussion (Defense News; Business Today). As of 5 July 2026 the 114-jet acquisition is at the negotiation stage; no final contract had been reported signed.

AMCA: the indigenous fifth-generation programme

The Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft is India’s indigenous fifth-generation stealth fighter, developed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the Defence Research and Development Organisation. The Cabinet Committee on Security approved prototype development in March 2024, sanctioning a project reported at about Rs 15,000 crore for a 25-tonne twin-engine stealth aircraft with an internal weapons bay and diverterless supersonic intake (Airforce Technology; Wikipedia).

On 27 May 2025 the Defence Minister approved the programme’s execution model. Per the Ministry of Defence, the model routes development through the ADA in industry partnership and gives private and public sector firms equal opportunity to bid on a competitive basis — independently, as joint ventures or as consortia — provided the bidder is an Indian company (PIB). This departs from the traditional practice of assigning such programmes by default to the public-sector Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, which under the new model must compete for the manufacturing role (Airforce Technology). ADA has publicly laid out a roadmap targeting prototype rollout, a first flight later in the decade, and induction in the mid-2030s; these are the programme’s stated targets, and reporting notes fifth-generation development timelines of this kind have historically slipped (Airforce Technology).

Tejas: the indigenous line meant to fill squadrons now

The Light Combat Aircraft Tejas is the near-term indigenous replacement for retiring types. India contracted 83 Tejas Mk1A jets from HAL in 2021 and inked a further order for 97 on 25 September 2025 (ThePrint). Deliveries of the Mk1A, originally expected from 2024, have slipped, with reporting attributing the delay to F404 engine-supply disruptions from GE Aerospace and to integration of the aircraft’s radar and electronic-warfare systems; HAL and GE signed an agreement on 7 November 2025 for 113 further F404 engines to support the follow-on order (ThePrint). The heavier Tejas Mk2, a medium-weight fighter approved earlier by the CCS, is in the prototype and rollout phase, with HAL and DRDO officials giving differing first-flight targets across 2026 and 2027 (Wikipedia). Between them, the Tejas lines, the Rafale orders and the AMCA are the three levers the IAF and Ministry of Defence have described for closing the squadron gap.

Who owns this topic (and why we’re here)

Search results for “IAF squadron strength,” “AMCA vs Rafale” and “Tejas Mk1A delivery” are dominated by UPSC and defence-exam explainers (IASGyan, Vision IAS, Legacy IAS, JICE IAS) and by aggregator defence blogs (IDRW, defence.in threads, EurasianTimes). Those pages are optimised for a single exam answer or a single day’s rumour, and they blur what is signed against what is merely proposed — repeating, for example, a fixed squadron number without a date, or presenting an ADA target as a fixed delivery. This brief out-structures them by separating the three programmes cleanly, dating each decision to its official or reported source, distinguishing Cabinet approval from contract signature from induction, and characterising the contested timelines as the range of positions their sources actually hold rather than a single prediction. Every load-bearing claim links to a government release, an encyclopedic reference, or a datelined report.

Maintained topic brief. Analysis by IndiaStand — it characterises the state of play and the range of positions actually held, attributes each claim, and makes no forecast and no recommendation.